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Maes–Garreau law : ウィキペディア英語版
Maes–Garreau law
The Maes–Garreau law is the statement that "most favorable predictions about future technology will fall within the Maes–Garreau point", defined as "the latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it".〔Kevin Kelly: (The Maes–Garreau Point ) March 14, 2007〕 Specifically, it relates to predictions of a technological singularity or other radical future technologies.〔
It has been referred to as a "law of human nature",〔Michael Marshall, Five laws of human nature, New Scientist, 17 December 2009 http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18301-five-laws-of-human-nature.html〕 although Kelly's evidence is anecdotal.
==Origin==
Kevin Kelly, editor of ''Wired'' magazine, created the law in 2007 after being influenced by Pattie Maes at MIT and Joel Garreau (author of ''Radical Evolution'').〔
In 1993, Maes listed a number of her colleagues at MIT that had publicly predicted mind uploading (the replication of a human brain on a computer), and noted that the innovations were generally slated to occur approximately 70 years after the birth of the predictor. As quoted by her colleague Rodney Brooks:〔

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